Nissan’s fossil-fuel-free hatchback, the Leaf, will miss its sales target of 20,000 units in the U.S., CEO Carlos Ghosn has conceded. Well, duh. Aside from revealing that the sun will continue its streak of rising in the east, what could Mr. Ghosn say that’s any less surprising? The plan was to double last year’s annual sales of about 10,000 Leafs—but through the end of October, Nissan sold only 6791. Not only is that rather shy of 20,000, it’s a 16-percent decline from the first 10 months of last year. To what do the Leaf owe its rather unspectacular performance?
Looking at our chart, above, it’s apparent that gas prices can significantly affect Leaf sales. It’s not just as simple as high prices leading to higher sales, although there are times when the data certainly reflects that. As gas prices increase, stabilize, and decrease, people become accustomed to new levels of normal. During the first few months of 2012, average gas prices shot up, but Leaf sales declined; this could be random, affected by weather or inventory—or it could be related to the launch of the plug-in hybrid version of the Toyota Prius.
More troubling for Nissan, though, is that while the Leaf is the leading pure EV on the market, it’s trounced in sales by the Chevy Volt. With a gasoline engine on board as a range extender, the Volt won’t leave drivers stranded when the batteries are depleted; Chevy’s “range-anxiety” ad campaign is rooted in reality. Other pure EVs have also sold poorly, with no model breaking 1000 sales so far in 2012. In many cases, this is intentional, with automakers building EVs to satisfy regulators and leasing a limited number of loss-making vehicles in California and a handful of other states. What that means is that so far in 2012, roughly the same number of non-Leaf EVs as Maseratis have been sold.
Salvation won’t come for Nissan in spiking gas prices, though. The Leaf needs a major overhaul. Most importantly, it needs improvement in the usual EV areas: range, recharge time, and price. A cheaper version is coming—but this is a field-stripped car, with steel wheels and fewer features. To get anywhere close to 20,000 units, as Mr. Ghosn has said he’d like, Nissan must address this EV holy trinity. Until then, the Leaf will remain in sales purgatory. Read full story »
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/caranddriver/blog/~3/8MfS0pFvawg/
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